A Game of Two Halves - 2006 First Half Malware Review
Somewhat late I know, but I am finally going to post selected parts and snippets from the 2006 half-year malware review I finished in July as I promised, and I do try and keep my promises. So better late than never, here we go…
Malware Review of 2006 [January - June]
Below is a summary of the state of malware and related ‘things-that-go-bump-in-the-net’ for the first six months of 2006. If you need further details on any issue you will find a list of references throughout and can always search my blog for more details on a specific topic. All feedback and questions are welcome.
Overview
The beginning of 2006 was also the 20th anniversary of the first PC virus, Brain.
For anyone outside the security industry the first six months of 2006 were pretty uneventful; however this is just a case of the ‘Swan Principal‘ - All serene and smooth on top but furious activity going on beneath the surface - both in the malware and anti-malware camps.
E-mail borne malware is fast becoming extinct as malware authors move to using other infection vectors or links instead of attaching malware. The other trend that is occurring is the move back towards Trojans and using social engineering to get users to infect their own computers. SOPHOS found that only 1 in 91 e-mail were viral compared to 1 in 35 for the same period last year.
Phishing has grown from a minor inconvenience to a widespread and growing problem which currently shows no sign of a slowdown. However, there is somewhat of a change happening in that phishing scams are no longer just targeting customers of online payment systems [paypal], banks, building societies and ISPs. They are increasingly turning their attention to smaller firms and more targeted attacks. Increasingly we are seeing botnets being used to Spam out phishing e-mails and also bot infected computers used to host the bogus ‘phishing’ site itself.
Bots and Botnets have become big business with many ‘botnet owners’ making serious money renting out their ‘army’ of ‘drones’ to be used for DDoS attacks or pushing Spam, Phishing e-mails or other scams through. Botnets are also being used to seed new malware and adware/spyware; effectively giving it a head start which allows it to appear almost instantaneously all over the world.
Malicious software aimed at mobile devices, such as PDAs and SmartPhones have grown quickly so far this year. This is not surprising as more and more of us now have SmartPhones with more computer power in our hands than a desktop computer offered a mere 10 years ago. During the review period the number of malware targeting mobile devices exceeded the 200 mark.
Ransomware
Data or disks being encrypted by malware is nothing new, however we seem to be seeing a increase in the use of this technique to extort money from those that get infected. In some cases it has almost become a hostage shooting scenario as if infected users do not pay-up within a specified period files get deleted and this is repeated until the user gives in and pays up.
Multi-stage malware is malware that arrives in parts, sections. This is not a new technique but it is one that is increasingly being used by the malware authors.
As this blog posting is ’selected highlights‘ of the full 16 page report, let us look at some of the areas mentioned above in more detail:
Malware Growth
Almost at 200,000 malware strains/variants
If we look at the overall growth of malware so far this year, it grew from 168,807 [as at the end of December 2005] to 199,255 [as at the end of June 2006]. That’s a growth of 30,448 new malware strains and/or variants in the first half of the year. If we extrapolate that out we are looking at least 60,000 new malware strains and/or variants by the end of this year.
I have already written a blog entry on this, so to save space, and my fingers, you can the original posting here.
The following chart shows the actual growth of malware each month for the first half of 2005 and the first half 2006. You can clearly see the same trends at work; however the numbers are much larger.

The average per month for the first half of 2005 was 4494 new malware variants, whereas the average per month for the first half of 2006 was 5075 new malware variants. This equates to 28 new malware found on average each and every day during the first six months of 2006, for the same period last year the figure was just 25.
Now, let us look at the growth and trends from actual data from my own internet facing malware sensors. The first graph shows data from January 2004 until June 2006 and only shows malware samples captured which travel via e-mail.

Let us now look at the whole six month period with respect to individual malware variants and families. The first pie chart shows the top 10 malware variants. This data is from my WormCharmer and includes not only e-mail based malware but also share-crawling worms and bots too.

As you can see there are a number of Mytob variants in the top 10, in fact they take 4 of the 10 slots; the other 6 are taken by W32/Tenga.3666 which accounts for over 65 percent of the top 10 pie, and over 50 percent of all samples captured in the first six months of 2006. Tenga is a ‘blast from the past’ as it had been suggested by some anti-virus vendors that ‘viruses’ were now extinct, apart from those already known and catalogued. The rest of the pie is made up of W32/MyWife.d@MM, W32/Netsky.p@MM, W32/Opaserve.ae and finally W32/Opaserv.d [in 5th, 6th, 7th and 10th respectively].

The above pie-chart shows the data for the same period but grouped by malware ‘families’. As you can clearly see the Tenga family [which is only made up of the initial version] account for the largest slice, almost 55 percent. Mytob are forced into second place, accounting for just 23 percent of the pie. These top two are followed by the ‘Opaserv’ family and the ‘Netsky’ family. Next come MyWife, Sdbot, Mydoom, Sdbot and Ranky Dropper and in ninth spot is Ranky. Bringing up the rear is the ‘Agobot’ family.
Right, now we have covered some of the statistics of the first half of 2006, let us now look at some of the trends reported in the review:
Trends
Ransomware
Data or disks being encrypted by malware is nothing new, however we seem to be seeing a rebirth of this technique to extort money from those that get infected.
One of the first ransomware found was Virus.Win32.Gpcode.a [Kaspersky] which was found in December of 2004, a second variant appeared later that month. We are now seeing versions of this ransomware using strong encryption. In January variant ac was found and it used a RSA algorithm with a 56 bit key-length. Next we saw a version using a 260 bit key, then a 330 bit key, each of these were cracked by the anti-virus firms. To top it all in June the author released a new version using a 660 bit key, this should have taken around 30 years to crack, but Kaspersky managed to crack it within 24 hours. It is expected that we will see more of these Gpcode variants using larger and larger keys along with new malware that uses strong encryption techniques to hide or steal data.
If we see this technique added to bots we may well have to add a new entry to the definition of DDoS attacks, as encrypting files or whole disks without the owners knowledge is definitely a denial of service as they won’t be able to use the data or disk that has been encrypted.
In one case a ransomware malware known as Ransom-A [Sophos] prevented users from accessing their computer until the ransom was paid via Western Union. The fee demanded was a measly 10.99 [US Dollars]. The amount may be small, but to try and ensure that the victim paid up, for every thirty minutes which passed it claimed it would delete a file. Furthermore, Ransom-A displayed pornographic images and messages on the infected systems screen which added to the pressure to pay up, especially if you were in an office or public place where your screen could be seen.
Along similar lines is the data-stealing malware, more often than not these are Trojans specialising in stealing passwords and other sensitive data. There have been cases where Phishers have used these tools by using known vulnerabilities in Microsoft Internet Explorer to automatically download an install the Trojan as the phishing e-mail is being read.
Script Malware Returns
Script viruses and other malware have been around for many years, but interest in them has waned over the last few years, or so it seemed. This year we have seen a number of script based malware, these include:
It seems that we are seeing the rebirth of script-based malware, this time the target is web-based applications and the servers running these applications and sites. What is more worrying is that some of these, such as Feebs and Scano are polymorphic and therefore are harder to reliably detect as they mutate each time they infect.
A Half-Year Packed with PoCs
It seems to have been rather manic on the ‘proof of concept’ front with regard to malware, so far this year we have seen the following new targets attacked:
- Matlab
- Microsoft Project
- Open Office
- Mac OSX
- J2ME
This year may have been short on major outbreaks, so far. This is partially because the malware authors are spending the time in investigating new attack vectors and methods. I suspect that the second half of 2006 will see a similar increase in PoCs.
Right, finally let me cover some of the things I see in my crystal ball…
Expectations for the rest of 2006
Let us look into our virtual crystal-ball and see what the last half of 2006 may hold.
Actually this is more scientific than merely guessing as it uses all the data from 2006 so far and the other twenty years of malware activity to come up with the most likely scenarios. However, something new and unexpected can always turn up to turn everything on its head.
Phishing to continue to grow.
More scams using social engineering to dupe users into disclosing private or confidential information or getting them to perform a task, such as running an attachment or deleting system files (user initiated malware). More phishing scams to use malware such as key-loggers and backdoors to compromise/further exploit a victims system. Man-in-the-middle scams to become more widespread.
Increased social-engineering use in malware.
Malware authors are well aware that most often the weakest link in a company’s security is the person behind the keyboard. Until users gain a healthy level of paranoia then the problem will continue and may be used more often to defeat a company’s anti-malware defence.
SPAM will continue to grow, despite the recent legislation passed in both the UK/EU and the US and even allowing for the arrests/prosecutions of spammers in 2004, the growth in risk of being caught will be offset by the increasing use of bot nets as spam proxies. Not only will we see and increase in e-mail spam, but also instant messaging spam [known as spim] and VoIP spam [known as spit].
Bots and botnets will continue to be the tool of choice for cyber-criminals. What we will continue to see during the rest of 2006 is a further move from using IRC for command and control, to other methods such as web servers running SSL [encrypted] command and control systems. We may also see encrypted peer-to-peer [P2P] networks created by bot/botnet creators as IRC server owner’s crackdown on misuse of their servers. Furthermore the increasing use of IPS/IDS to detect botnet IRC traffic will force the bad guys to move to encrypted protocols as an attempt to try and defeat the use of these technologies.
It has become clear over the last few years that malware authors are increasingly looking at operating systems other than Windows. The number of Linux malware is increasing steadily as they search for effective ways to target it. The same has been happening on the Apple Mac platform. We will see more, and increasingly complex and successful malware for Linux and Mac operating systems during the rest of 2006.
So, there you have it, a quick peek at some of the facts, findings, trend analysis and a bit of crystal ball gazing to round it all off.
Other Malware Reviews
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All the data up to the end of December 2006 will be left here, however all postings from the 1st of January 2007 onwards will only be available at this blogs new home.
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